So, if I understand this correctly, John Doe buys/gets a mortgage for 200,000 house he’d buying, and say he’s paying 6%, meaning over thirty years he’s gonna pay a total of 431,000 including 231,000 of interest. So the bank will make a profit of 231,000 over 30 years, or 7,700 a year for 30 years.
Now the bank packages 35 of these together. Now you see they lent out $7 million and over 30 years will get that plus $8 million profit back. However, it takes a long while to get that money back. So instead of waiting, they sell the package to Frank Richass for 9 million. They get their 7 million back, make 2 million profit, and are free to walk away. 2 Million profit today is better than 8 over 30 years.
Well the bank quickly realizes, shit, all we have to do it give out a bunch of mortgages sell them off. Now, people aren’t stupid. They say, hey, how do I know these people are gonna pay their mortgages? And banks say… Well I guarantee it. If they don’t then then we’ll pay the difference. But what about when people actually start defaulting on their mortgages?
Well, the people who own the MBS stop making money. If everyone’s paying it they get their 269,500 a month, if 5 of the 35 don’t then it’s 231k a month. However if 20 of the 35 don’t pay if off, then that only gets to 9 million, and they don’t make any profit. Plus! If people who do pay it off pay pay off the mortgage quicker than anticipated, then they don’t have to pay as much interest.
My math is clearly not perfect, and the numbers/rates/and percentages are off from the real world, but at the end of the day, if they make a bunch of bad loans, the back can’t pay off all they guaranteed. So the bank goes bankrupt, and the investor either doesn’t make a profit/as much of one/or even the money he put in.
Apparently the 700 billion would purchase the MBS, now I’m not certain if that’s the cost of the MBSs. If it is, we theoretically could get some of the 700billion back, if theoretically everyone kept paying their houses then we’d get it all back.
Of course, that’s not gonna happen. If the banks are going bankrupt paying to MBS holders what the homeowners didn’t, then it’s clear that those securities are not good ones. The big companies wouldn’t be pushing them on the government, and Congress/Bush wouldn’t be so eager to buy them if they were good investments.
Their theory is that if we buy them, and take the loss, then the banks won’t go bankrupt paying what they guaranteed the securities would. (I’m not sure if they want to buy both the MBS which “people” hold or even the bad loans which banks hold). As a result the banks and MBS holders could keep their money and keep lending to people(presumably with legislation to make sure they didn’t go too crazy again). But what if we don’t pay $700+ billion for them?
Then, the banks have to pay out what they guaranteed the MBSs would until they run out of money. Now shouldn’t they have a lot of money stockpiled? Probably not, as soon as they sell it for 9 million they go out and give 9 million in loans and sell it for 15, then again then again, and then the shit hits the fan. People start realizing the housing market’s crashing. They realize that people are defaulting on mortgages, and the bank has to start paying what they guaranteed the MBSs would. But all their free money is tied up in more bad(and even worse mortgages given at the height of the boom) which no one is willing to buy as MBS. So the bank is stuck with a ton of bad mortgages and so are the MBS holders. And the cards fall where they may, and people lose money.
But why do we need the banks need to give mortgages? Well the argument is Demand-Side. They say, if banks don’t have the money then businesses can’t get loans to start or expand, if they can’t start or expand, they can’t hire people, and no one will be able to get a job or buy a house since there won’t be anyone to give you a mortgage.
But does that make sense? Housing prices are lower and still falling. Other than money in the stock market… People still have income, they’re still working, they still need houses, they still need cars, they still need all the same things they needed before. And at the end of the day.. That money’s still out there.
As a matter of fact, remember who why it was lent in the first place? It was lent to people to purchase overpriced homes. Which means, all this money ended up going to the former owners of the homes. Some of it went to construction companies, some went to reality companies, some went to developers, and a whole lot went to private individuals who sold their home.
So where is it now? two places: those people who profited off selling a house, put it in the bank(or stock market), others spent it or are going to spend it on goods. Ultimately, it’s no big deal. Its a little hard for the people who put money in the stock market and it will be hard to get a loan for something you can’t afford…
Well you know what? You shouldn’t buy something you can’t afford…. Did you see what I saw at the top when writing this????? On a 200,000 loan at 6% you pay $231,000 in interest! How about you save and just wait to buy a damn house when you have the money? It takes 14 years at the most. Or maybe instead of saving for 14 years and spending 300k save for 7 years and get a 150k house and work for 7 more). Most importantly!! When you’ve bought the house you won’t have to keep paying a mortgage to the bank for 16 years. You’ll be able to actually save for your own retirement.!